How Florida Learned to Respond · FLH-0016

How Hurricane Forecasting Changed Florida

Written by Wm. E. McMullen II · Florida History Mini

From Ship Reports and Storm Flags to Satellites and Hurricane Hunters

A propeller-driven reconnaissance aircraft flying toward a towering hurricane eyewall over the ocean. — AI-generated illustration of a 1950s Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying toward a storm. Created with OpenAI for Florida Learning Hub, 2026. Conceptual illustration; not an archival photograph.

In September 1935, pilot Leonard Povey flew over the Florida Straits and observed the hurricane approaching the Keys. The flight is remembered as an early example of using aircraft to gather storm information. It belongs to a long history of attempts to see farther ahead, from coastal observers and ship reports to satellites and reconnaissance aircraft.

A Priest in Havana, and Ships That Vanished

The earliest organized hurricane warning effort in the Atlantic began in Havana, where Jesuit priest and meteorologist Father Benito Viñes started a systematic hurricane warning service in the 1870s. In the United States, the Army Signal Service developed its own warning system. Congress authorized a civilian Weather Bureau in 1890; it began operations on July 1, 1891.

For decades the main source of hurricane information was ships that happened to meet a storm. That left a blind spot: once a captain reported a hurricane, the sensible choice was to steer away, leaving forecasters with no further reports. These “lost hurricanes” could reach land with little warning.

Galveston Forces a Reckoning

In September 1900 a hurricane struck Galveston, Texas, with virtually no effective warning, killing an estimated six thousand to twelve thousand people, the deadliest natural disaster in American history. The Weather Bureau soon set up a hurricane warning office at New Orleans for Gulf storms. In 1902 the Hurricane Warning Service consolidated in Washington, and shipboard radio, introduced in 1905, sped up reports from sea.

Florida Gets Its Own Office

In 1935 the federal government set up a hurricane warning program with regional offices in Jacksonville, Washington, San Juan and New Orleans. They issued advisories every six hours and separated storm-force from hurricane-force warnings for the first time, a structure that still underlies today’s watches and warnings.

A Dare That Changed Everything

In July 1943, Colonel Joseph Duckworth, stationed in Texas, accepted a dare from British pilots who doubted an AT-6 trainer could survive flying into a hurricane. He flew into the eye and out, then, at a weather officer’s urging, flew back through to gather observations. The flight showed that aircraft could survive a hurricane’s core, opening the way to organized Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance.

Research, Satellites and the Hurricane Center

The destructive 1954 season led to the National Hurricane Research Project in 1955. Robert Simpson directed it, and its first base in 1956 was Morrison Air Force Base in West Palm Beach, using specially instrumented Air Force aircraft. In 1959 the project moved to Miami and joined the city’s forecast office, a step toward the National Hurricane Center.

The 1960s brought weather satellites, including Tiros, Nimbus and later the GOES series, giving forecasters a continuous overhead view of the ocean for the first time. Storms that once approached nearly unseen could now be tracked from formation.

From One Day to Five

The result shows in forecast length. In 1954 official hurricane track forecasts reached one day ahead; by 1961, two; by 1964, three; and by 2003, five days, the window still used today. Frank Marks, a former director of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, said: “In the 40 years I was working, I saw forecast skill improve dramatically.”

Today GOES satellites watch every Atlantic system, polar-orbiting satellites pass over storms about twice daily, and NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft fly into storms to drop instruments. NOAA’s hurricane aircraft fleet is based at the Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida.

Quick Facts

First warning service	1870s, Havana, Father Benito Viñes
Galveston	September 1900; led to the first Gulf Coast warning office at New Orleans
Regional offices	1935: Jacksonville, Washington, San Juan, New Orleans
First aerial reconnaissance	September 1935, Leonard Povey
Wartime breakthrough	1943, Col. Joseph Duckworth flies an AT-6 into a hurricane
Research project	National Hurricane Research Project, 1955; West Palm Beach base 1956
Forecast horizon	1 day (1954); 3 days (1964); 5 days (2003)
Aircraft base	Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland